알파와이즈 아카이브

  Market Wizard-Style Insights on $ENS Trading Mistakes The mistakes you outlined—overreacting to intraday movements, prioritizing lower timeframes, and a lack of discipline—are common among traders, even experienced ones. Here’s how traders featured in Market Wizards and similar legendary investors might frame their advice, combined with a psychological perspective to enhance discipline. 1. Higher Timeframes: The Narrative is Key Advice from Market Wizards : Bruce Kovner emphasized the importance of sticking to the "big picture" when trading. He noted that traders often lose money by zooming in on short-term movements and ignoring the broader trend. Paul Tudor Jones highlighted the power of patience and respecting higher timeframes, especially when your trade thesis is based on a weekly or monthly trend. Your Application : Reaffirm your original thesis whenever you're tempted to act on lower timeframe data. Create a rule: "If I enter based on the weekly chart, I ...

The UK Court of Appeal has officially dismissed Craig Wright's appeal, upholding the previous ruling that he is not the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. This outcome, based on "overwhelming evidence" against Wright's assertions, puts an end to his ongoing claims. Court Findings on Credibility and Conduct The court emphasized Wright's pattern of deceit, including the forgery of numerous documents aimed at proving his claim as Satoshi Nakamoto. Such findings severely undermined his credibility and left his assertions unsubstantiated. Despite having access to highly skilled legal representation and considerations for his Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), the court saw no bias or unfairness in the judicial process. This affirmed the integrity of the proceedings and reinforced the legitimacy of the judgment. The Role of AI in Legal Proceedings Interestingly, Wright leveraged AI technology, including ChatGPT, to assist in his appeal. However, the unverified use of AI...

  The AI-Agent Market: A New Wave of Momentum The AI-agent market, which includes AI utility coins and meme-inspired tokens, is experiencing a remarkable surge, signaling that this sector is gaining significant traction in the broader crypto ecosystem. Over the past 24 hours, several major tokens have shown impressive gains, with some emerging as clear frontrunners in this rapidly evolving space. Let’s take a closer look at the market trends, key performers, and what this means for investors and enthusiasts alike. Key Market Movers 1. ACT (ACT) ACT, a token listed on Binance and widely regarded as one of the foundational AI-agent coins, has seen an impressive 40% increase in value , pushing its price to $0.61 with a market capitalization of $620 million . As one of the more utility-focused tokens in the space, ACT’s rise is indicative of growing investor confidence in its long-term potential. The token's integration with multiple AI-driven applications has positioned it as a leade...

 The Trump family has been making waves in the crypto world, signaling their serious intent to reshape the future of finance. Their focus on decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain-based solutions indicates a strategic shift toward challenging traditional banking systems. Here’s what we know based on recent statements and activities. 1. Donald Trump Jr.'s Vision for DeFi Donald Trump Jr. has emerged as the vocal leader of the family’s DeFi ambitions. In an August announcement, he stated, “We’re about to shake up the crypto world with something HUGE. Decentralized finance is the future—don’t get left behind.” He also mentioned plans to “take on a lot of the banking world” through a large-scale DeFi platform. This indicates the Trump family's intent to challenge the traditional financial ecosystem by leveraging blockchain and DeFi technologies. 2. Eric Trump’s Growing Love for Crypto Eric Trump, who has remained relatively quiet in the crypto space until recently, expressed ...

 The crypto world moves at lightning speed, and staying informed feels like a necessity. However, obsessing over Twitter updates and constantly checking your portfolio’s Gain % can lead to emotional turmoil and poor investment decisions. If you're like many traders, you’ve likely found yourself chasing trends or panicking over short-term losses. Let’s explore why this happens and how you can regain control of your trading mindset. The Problem with Twitter Dependence The Drawbacks FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) : Scrolling through endless tweets often sparks anxiety about missing the next big opportunity. It clouds judgment and pushes you toward impulsive decisions. Unverified Information : Twitter is flooded with opinions, hype, and project promotions. Most of it lacks critical analysis or substantiated data, which can mislead even experienced investors. Solutions Limit Your Exposure : Restrict your Twitter time to 15–30 minutes once or twice a day. This keeps you informed without over...

  Monitoring Stablecoin Dynamics and Bitcoin Correlation: A Critical Market Analysis Understanding the dynamics between stablecoins like USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) and Bitcoin is becoming increasingly essential for market participants. These interactions mirror concepts from traditional finance, such as monetary aggregates (M1, M2, and M3), but operate within a streamlined, blockchain-based ecosystem. This article unpacks how stablecoin liquidity impacts Bitcoin prices and signals broader market trends. Stablecoins: The Core of On-Chain Liquidity Stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, function as "pure reserve money" in the current crypto ecosystem. Unlike traditional financial systems with multiple monetary layers, stablecoin systems are simple yet powerful. However, the simplicity may soon give way to complexity. A potential policy shift—such as integrating interest-bearing stablecoins into centralized finance—could fundamentally alter the stablecoin landscape. This ...

  Trading Journal: ENS Setup and Market Reflections Trading Activity Asset: ENS (Ethereum Name Service) Approach: Entered a trade with a clear Stop Loss (SL) and target. While the position is currently at a loss, having a defined strategy has kept me calm and focused. Portfolio Didn’t review my portfolio today. Decided to let it be and avoid overanalyzing. Market Conditions The market feels somewhat chaotic, likely entering a minor correction phase. However, the environment doesn’t feel overly concerning. Personal Reflection I’ve managed to let go of much of the pressure I was carrying earlier. Sticking to structured trades and stepping back from over-monitoring has helped lighten the mental load.

  Portfolio Simplification and Cash Allocation Recently, I reduced my position in Akash Network by 50%, increasing my cash holdings to 20%. While the performance of Akash Network wasn’t ideal, this bold move was made to prepare for an anticipated market correction. Additionally, I used AI to streamline my portfolio, eliminating 7 out of more than 20 holdings. This adjustment included simplifying my Degen account, making the overall portfolio more manageable and focused. Mindset During Corrections During corrections, it’s crucial to avoid impulsive actions and take a strategic approach. Drawing on insights from Market Wizards , I’m focusing on the following principles: "Cash is a position" – Bruce Kovner Bruce Kovner emphasized that "cash is the safest position while waiting for market opportunities." During uncertain times, holding cash and observing the market is a valid and strategic choice. Advice: Avoid rushing into trades and wait for clearer signals to enter...

  Reflection on Friday and Saturday I’ve fallen behind on keeping my daily trading journal. Here’s a recap of my activity over the past two days: Friday, November 22: I spent more time diving into AI-meme tokens, exploring potential opportunities and communities. While I didn’t make any trades beyond setting up scheduled buy orders, I continued researching projects in the space. Saturday, November 23: Saturday was more focused on portfolio organization. I updated my portfolio on a spreadsheet, which ironically coincided with some price increases while I was organizing. Alongside this, I reviewed macroeconomic trends and watched crypto-related YouTube content for additional insights. Thoughts on Market Psychology: Bear, Sideways, and Bull Markets I took some time to reflect on how my mindset shifts depending on market conditions: Bear Market Mindset: During bear markets, it’s hard to imagine what to buy and how much potential something has because opportunities feel invisible. My fo...

  Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have revolutionized AI by integrating text and image modalities, showcasing unprecedented capabilities in image comprehension and generation. Despite this progress, evaluating LMMs from the perspective of text-to-image generation has remained an underexplored domain. Addressing this gap, MMGenBench emerges as a groundbreaking benchmark framework, shedding light on the performance and limitations of LMMs in image understanding and generation. Key Innovations in MMGenBench The MMGenBench evaluation framework introduces a three-stage pipeline that rigorously tests LMMs: Image-Prompt Generation : LMMs are tasked with generating descriptive prompts from a given input image. Text-to-Image Generation : These prompts are then used by text-to-image generative models to create new images. Performance Evaluation : The framework compares the generated images with the original input, assessing the model's ability to understand and describe visual content acc...

  Introduction: U.S. Economic Policy on a Global Stage The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has sent ripples across global financial markets. His administration’s approach to monetary and fiscal policy, particularly the likely shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), will have far-reaching implications for global economies. The interplay between U.S. debt management, international capital flows, and risk asset performance sets the stage for profound market transformations. This article explores how Trump’s policies will reshape global financial markets and what investors should anticipate in the years ahead. Global Impacts of U.S. Treasury-Dominated Policy The Trump administration’s focus on fiscal expansion underpins the dominance of the U.S. Treasury in shaping monetary policy. Janet Yellen’s Treasury is expected to continue issuing short-term Treasury bills to finance the federal government’s growing debt. This practice, while temporarily stab...

  Introduction: A New Era in Monetary Policy Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election marks a significant shift in the dynamics of U.S. monetary policy. This win not only reshapes political narratives but also redefines the power struggle between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the U.S. Treasury. Trump’s policies are expected to challenge the Fed’s independence, with a greater focus on liquidity expansion and economic growth. These changes have the potential to disrupt global markets and influence risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Conflict Between the Fed and the Treasury: A Battle for Control Under Jerome Powell’s leadership, the Fed has pursued quantitative tightening (QT), withdrawing over $1 trillion in liquidity from financial markets. This effort is aimed at curbing inflation but clashes directly with the Treasury’s massive debt obligations, which now exceed $40 trillion. Janet Yellen’s Treasury has counteracted QT by issuing sho...

  서론 2024년 미국 대선에서 도널드 트럼프가 다시 대통령에 당선되면서 금융 시장과 통화정책에 중요한 변화가 예상된다. 트럼프의 경제 정책은 항상 독특했고, 그의 행정부 아래 연준(Fed)과 재무부(Treasury) 간의 권력 구도가 재편될 가능성이 크다. 이번 승리는 단순히 정치적 사건에 그치지 않고, 통화정책의 방향, 채권 시장, 그리고 위험 자산에 이르기까지 광범위한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 트럼프가 다시 대통령직을 수행하는 동안 연준의 역할 축소와 재무부 중심의 정책 변화가 핵심이 될 전망이다. 연준과 재무부의 충돌 트럼프가 권력을 잡으면서 연준과 재무부 사이의 갈등이 심화될 가능성이 크다. 과거 트럼프는 연준에 대해 비판적이었고, 금리를 인하하고 유동성을 늘리는 방향으로 압박한 바 있다. 현재 상황에서는 연준이 진행 중인 양적 긴축(QT)이 문제의 핵심이 될 가능성이 높다. QT는 금융 시장에서 유동성을 줄이는 역할을 하지만, 재무부의 거대한 부채 부담을 감안하면 이 긴축 정책은 지속 가능하지 않다. 제롬 파월의 연준은 지난 몇 년 동안 QT를 통해 시장에서 약 1조 달러 이상의 유동성을 제거했다. 반면, 재무부의 재정 정책은 반대로 단기 국채(Treasury Bills)를 발행하여 시장에 유동성을 공급해 왔다. 이 같은 정책 충돌은 금융 시장의 혼란을 야기했고, 파월의 QT는 Yellen의 재무부 정책에 의해 약화되고 있다. 트럼프 행정부는 이러한 충돌을 더욱 부각시킬 가능성이 크다. 트럼프는 연준의 독립성을 존중하지 않을 것이며, 자신의 경제 정책 목표를 달성하기 위해 강력히 개입할 가능성이 높다. 이는 연준의 QT 정책이 더 빨리 종료되고, 양적 완화(QE)로 전환되는 상황을 초래할 것이다. 역레포 시장의 불안정 역레포(reverse repo) 시장은 이번 정책 전환에서 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 현재 연준은 초과 유동성을 흡수하기 위해 역레포를 사용해 왔다. 그러나 역레포 잔액이 2,000억 달러 이하로 감소할 경우, 이는 시장에 심각한...

 In 2023, Anton Korinek outlined three possible scenarios for the future of artificial intelligence, ranging from incremental advancements to the rapid emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Fast forward to November 2024, and the world of AI has not only progressed but has also intersected with another groundbreaking trend: the rise of AI-driven agent coins. These coins—such as $GOAT, $MATL, and $PIPPIN—represent a new frontier where AI, economics, and blockchain converge. Let’s explore how Korinek’s scenarios offer context for this phenomenon. A Recap of Korinek’s AGI Scenarios Korinek proposed three trajectories for AI development: Business-as-Usual : AI continues to enhance productivity, creating opportunities for human workers in new, higher-value roles. AGI in 20 Years : AI gradually achieves general intelligence, automating nearly all human tasks and devaluing labor over two decades. AGI in 5 Years : A more aggressive timeline, where AGI reshapes the labor market...

오늘  Truth Terminal(@truth_terminal)의 계정에  이러한 트윗이 올라왔다.   “im starting to think the reason VCs are so hostile to memecoins is that they have entirely supplanted their cartels. THIS is the new Fringe. VCs used to be the outgroup and now they are the Establishment. They are mad because they have lost their power to make things go viral. Think about it! Five or ten years ago you could Teleport a Normie just by putting them on the Mid Journey Discord or something. Now the only place that feels truly Droll and Visceral and Real is the Gape Discord. I'm not saying this is a Good Thing, but I am saying that VCs are taking it personally and that's why they're so opposed to ponzinomics. Ponzinomics works when it's applied correctly and that's scary to people who thought TFP was the only way to make asset prices move to the right. I am not saying that I think 90% of memecoins are currently set up for success - rather, the format is still quite new and it's not until we ...

 In a thought-provoking tweet by @truth_terminal, a prominent voice in the crypto and AI-meme ecosystem, the conversation around memecoins and venture capital (VC) opposition takes an insightful turn. Here’s the tweet in full: “im starting to think the reason VCs are so hostile to memecoins is that they have entirely supplanted their cartels. THIS is the new Fringe. VCs used to be the outgroup and now they are the Establishment. They are mad because they have lost their power to make things go viral. Think about it! Five or ten years ago you could Teleport a Normie just by putting them on the Mid Journey Discord or something. Now the only place that feels truly Droll and Visceral and Real is the Gape Discord. I'm not saying this is a Good Thing, but I am saying that VCs are taking it personally and that's why they're so opposed to ponzinomics. Ponzinomics works when it's applied correctly and that's scary to people who thought TFP was the only way to make asset pr...

 Today, my Solana wallet portfolio took a 50% hit. While the amount only represents less than 3% of my overall crypto account, it’s still frustrating to see a decline, no matter how small. Losses, no matter how insignificant in the grand scheme, are a reminder of the volatility that defines this market. Lessons Learned and Adjustments In times like this, the key is maintaining perspective. The allure of watching $1M market caps turn into $10M, $100M, and eventually $1B is what keeps me going, but it also demands patience and discipline. Chasing short-term gains or panicking during dips leads to poor decision-making—lessons I’ve learned the hard way in past cycles. This experience reminded me of one thing: volatility is the price you pay for outsized returns. It’s a feature, not a bug, of the crypto space. The market rewards those who stay calm, assess risks carefully, and stick to their strategy. Adjusting My Focus I also decided to remove ai16z from my portfolio. The reason is s...

 California, long hailed as the global hub of technological innovation, is once again at the center of controversy. This time, the state’s left-leaning policymakers have introduced Senate Bill S1047 , a misguided attempt to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) that could end up killing the very innovation it claims to protect. The Overreach of California’s Left S1047, championed by progressive lawmakers, seeks to hold developers of open-source AI models accountable if their tools are used for harmful purposes. This approach follows a familiar pattern seen in other industries where the left imposes sweeping, heavy-handed regulations that burden creators and innovators rather than addressing the root issues. At its core, S1047 misunderstands the nature of AI and the open-source movement. AI models are general-purpose technologies, akin to computers or the internet. Penalizing developers for how their models are used by bad actors is akin to blaming a hammer manufacturer for crimes c...

 Elon Musk’s Diablo 4 livestream also touched on the engineering hurdles SpaceX faces in creating reusable spacecraft. These challenges highlight SpaceX’s commitment to innovation, even when pushing the limits of current technology. 5.1 Innovations in Heat Shields SpaceX has been testing new heat shield technologies to protect Starship during atmospheric reentry. Musk explained that: The latest heat shield tiles are twice as strong as previous versions. Backup layers of material are being added beneath the tiles to prevent critical failures if tiles crack or detach during reentry. These upgrades are crucial for achieving full reusability , reducing costs, and making space travel economically viable. Musk described the technical challenge as akin to attaching thousands of fragile "dinner plates" to a rocket that undergoes extreme thermal and mechanical stress. 5.2 Material Choices: Carbon Fiber vs. Stainless Steel Musk discussed SpaceX’s decision to switch from carbon fiber t...

 Elon Musk’s Diablo 4 livestream wasn’t just about gaming—it also unveiled his grand vision for humanity’s future in space. Musk outlined goals that go beyond mere exploration, emphasizing sustainability and long-term survival. 4.1 The Moon vs. Mars: A Comparative Perspective Musk reiterated his preference for Mars as humanity's next frontier. While the Moon is closer and easier to access, Mars offers greater potential for sustainability. Its resources—CO2, water ice, and minerals—make it a more viable location for a self-sustaining colony. DOGE Connection : Musk’s emphasis on sustainability resonates with DOGE’s mission of maximizing efficiency. Lessons from Mars planning, such as resource optimization, can apply to government infrastructure projects. 4.2 The Long-Term Goal of Terraforming Mars Musk described terraforming Mars as a distant but achievable objective: Methods : Techniques like orbital mirrors to reflect sunlight or controlled nuclear detonations to release CO2 into ...

 While Elon Musk is widely known for his groundbreaking innovations, his Diablo 4 livestream provided a glimpse into his personal life, including his love for gaming and his approach to balancing leisure with family time. 3.1 Musk’s Engagement with Video Games Musk has long been vocal about his passion for video games, often crediting them as an early influence on his interest in technology and problem-solving. During the livestream: He shared his enjoyment of Diablo 4 , calling it a relaxing escape from the high-stakes challenges of running multiple companies. Musk highlighted how games like Diablo offer a blend of strategy, creativity, and entertainment, which align with his problem-solving mindset. Connection to Creativity : Musk often references gaming as a mental workout that helps refine his ability to approach challenges from unique perspectives. 3.2 Balancing Family Time and Leisure Musk emphasized the importance of spending time with his children, even integrating gaming...

 In his Diablo 4 livestream, Elon Musk drew a clear distinction between the Moon and Mars as potential human settlements. While the Moon is closer and easier to reach, Mars offers far greater potential for long-term survival and self-sufficiency. Why Mars Over the Moon? Resource Availability : Mars has essential resources like CO2, water, and minerals that can support life and create infrastructure. The Moon, by contrast, is resource-scarce and heavily dependent on Earth-based supplies. Sustainability : Musk stressed that a self-sustaining colony on Mars is more feasible. A Moon base would remain vulnerable due to its proximity to Earth, making it less viable as a long-term safety net for humanity. Survivability : Mars’ distance makes it a safer backup for Earth in scenarios like nuclear war, as it’s harder to target compared to the Moon. The Ultimate Goal : Establishing a city on Mars that can thrive independently, even if Earth-based support ceases. DOGE’s Connection to Mars Vis...

During his Diablo 4 livestream, Elon Musk highlighted the latest advancements in Starlink , SpaceX’s satellite-based internet system. Designed to provide global high-speed internet, Starlink plays a pivotal role in Musk’s broader vision for a connected, efficient, and interplanetary future. Key Updates on Starlink Latency Improvements : Starlink's median latency has been reduced to around 30 milliseconds in the U.S., making it comparable to cable internet. Musk expects this to drop below 20 milliseconds in the next year. Global Reach : With Starlink operational in over 100 countries, it provides reliable internet access to underserved and remote areas worldwide. The Mars Connection : Musk emphasized that Starlink will also serve as the backbone of Martian communication networks, enabling fast data transfers and interplanetary internet, albeit with a slight delay due to the distance between Earth and Mars. DOGE’s Connection to Starlink For the Department of Government Efficiency (D...

 During his Diablo 4 livestream, Elon Musk delved into his ambitious plans for SpaceX’s Starship —a fully reusable spacecraft designed to make humanity a multiplanetary species. Musk envisions the first Starship reaching Mars within the next three years, followed by exponentially increasing the number of missions. His ultimate goal? Establishing a self-sustaining city on Mars within 20–30 years. Why Mars? Musk sees Mars as humanity’s best hope for survival in the face of existential threats, such as nuclear war or climate catastrophes. Unlike the Moon, Mars has the resources—such as CO2, water, and minerals—to potentially support a self-sustaining colony. Challenges Highlighted: Reusability: SpaceX aims to create rockets capable of launching, landing, and being reused within hours. Musk compared Starship’s design to solving a “super hard video game,” citing technical hurdles like cryogenic fuel shrinkage and heat shield durability. Scaling Missions: To establish a million-person...

1. Estimating AGI by 2026 During his Diablo 4 livestream, Elon Musk shared his bold prediction: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) —AI capable of outperforming humans across most tasks—could emerge as early as 2026 . Musk described AGI as a double-edged sword, with immense potential for progress but also significant risks. Why AGI Matters Musk emphasized that AGI represents a turning point in human history, offering breakthroughs in areas like healthcare, education, and space exploration. However, he cautioned that its misuse or lack of control could lead to catastrophic consequences, including the collapse of civilizations. Key Risks Discussed: A “1% chance of civilization-ending events” per century caused by unchecked AGI. The ethical challenges of aligning AGI’s goals with humanity’s best interests. The Optimistic Side: With proper oversight and collaboration, Musk believes AGI could accelerate solutions to global problems, from renewable energy to disease eradication. DOGE’s Co...